Long-threatened tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump have plunged the country into trade wars abroad — all while on-again, off-again new levies continue to escalate uncertainty.

JPMorgan on Tuesday lowered its odds of a recession this year from 60% to below 50%, meaning the U.S. is more likely to grow in 2025 than enter a downturn. Similarly, Goldman Sachs reduced its chances of a recession this year from 45% to 35%.

It's hard to keep track of when tariffs start; some are already here, and President Donald Trump has floated more.