As Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” for announcing “reciprocal” tariffs on America’s trading partners approaches, the question in Beijing is whether this will be the moment when its nascent trade war with the US really escalates.

Orders have evaporated for Richard Chen, who manufactures Christmas decorations in southern China for U.S. retailers, including Walmart and Costco, facing crippling U.S. tariffs. "The orders are half of what they were last year,

Merchants purchase goods at China Yiwu International Trade City, in Jinhua, Zhejiang Province, on Feb. 9, 2025. Editor at Large Christmas comes early to Yiwu, a bustling entrepôt just a couple hours by train from China’s coastal megacity of Shanghai.