Recession odds are rising as Trump’s tariffs sink bond yields, oil prices, and stocks. So, too, are the odds of multiple Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

Traders on Friday bet the Federal Reserve will wait until June to start cutting interest rates after a government report showed stronger than expected jobs growth last month, even as they bet that the first rate cut will be a bigger-than-usual half-point reduction.

The Fed releases a report called the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) four times per year, which tells the public where members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) believe inflation, economic growth, the unemployment rate, and interest rates could be in the future.