TACO or tariffs? An August 1 deadline looms after the European Union became the latest of the top US trading partners to reach a deal with Trump.

The International Monetary Fund says the global economy is weathering President Trump's trade policy revolution, with growth expected to reach 3 percent this year.

But the outlook for many top U.S. trading partners has yet to come into clear focus. Trump has threatened, for example, to raise tariffs on Canada to 35% from the current 25% if the two countries don’t strike a deal by Friday. And a 90-day truce between the U.S. and China expires in mid-August, at which point Trump’s tariffs on China could soar.

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"We still believe the most likely outcome is slow growth and firm inflation: Not a recession, but a backdrop where the adverse effects of trade and immigration controls on growth outweigh the boost from deregulation and fiscal largesse," Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Zezas wrote.

Robert Friedland of Ivanhoe Mines told the BBC the 50% tariffs would help re-establish the US copper mining industry.

The US and EU are racing to lock in the final details of their major new trade deal before Friday's deadline. Critics say its a rushed fix, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz calling the outcome unsatisfying and France’s Bayrou dubbing the EU’s "submission" a "dark day.

Canadian aluminium smelters have started diverting primary metal away from the United States in response to the ratcheting up of import tariffs, first to 25% in March and then to 50% in June.