"We still believe the most likely outcome is slow growth and firm inflation: Not a recession, but a backdrop where the adverse effects of trade and immigration controls on growth outweigh the boost from deregulation and fiscal largesse," Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Zezas wrote.

But the outlook for many top U.S. trading partners has yet to come into clear focus. Trump has threatened, for example, to raise tariffs on Canada to 35% from the current 25% if the two countries don’t strike a deal by Friday. And a 90-day truce between the U.S. and China expires in mid-August, at which point Trump’s tariffs on China could soar.

The president is set to raise taxes on imports arriving from many countries, including Canada and Mexico. That’s on top of the tariffs that the White House has already announced on specific products,