COLA estimate is pegged at 2.2% after March's inflation report. But experts say Trump tariffs may influence the final COLA.

With the annual inflation rate dropping, Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security analyst, now predicts a 2.2% COLA for 2026. That would be lower than the 2025 COLA of 2.5%. Older Americans ...

New government inflation data points to a lower Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 compared to the 2.5% ...

The purpose of the COLA is to protect Social Security benefits from being eroded by inflation. Therefore, the most important component in calculating the adjustment is the inflation rate.

The COLA came in slightly lower because it only takes into account the inflation rates for July, August, and September (the third quarter) compared to the same period of the previous year.