Mortgage rates need to get below 6% to reinvigorate the frosty housing market, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6% would make the median-priced home affordable for about 5.5 million more households, NAR economists shared at the July 16 Real Estate Forecast Summit.

But mortgage rates are expected to finish the year at 6.4%, economists forecast. And most are not able to confidently predict when they will go below 6%. It has been nearly three years since the 30-year rate was below 6%. During the height of the pandemic, the average 30-year rate dropped to 2.67%. That was in late 2020.

Mortgage rates have dropped, but it's likely not tied to today’s Fed news. Here’s why waiting for a Fed rate cut could be a poor strategy for homebuyers.